Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Rich Man, Poor Man.


MAKING MONEY: The most popular piece I've published in 40 years of writing these Letters was entitled, "Rich Man, Poor Man." I have had dozens of requests to run this piece again or for permission to reprint it for various business organizations.
Making money entails a lot more than predicting which way the stock or bond markets are heading or trying to figure which stock or fund will double over the next few years. For the great majority of investors, making money requires a plan, self-discipline and desire. I say, "for the great majority of people" because if you're a Steven Spielberg or a Bill Gates you don't have to know about the Dow or the markets or about yields or price/earnings ratios. You're a phenomenon in your own field, and you're going to make big money as a by-product of your talent and ability. But this kind of genius is rare.
For the average investor, you and me, we're not geniuses so we have to have a financial plan. In view of this, I offer below a few items that we must be aware of if we are serious about making money.

Rule 1: Compounding: One of the most important lessons for living in the modern world is that to survive you've got to have money. But to live (survive) happily, you must have love, health (mental and physical), freedom, intellectual stimulation -- and money. When I taught my kids about money, the first thing I taught them was the use of the "money bible." What's the money bible? Simple, it's a volume of the compounding interest tables.
Compounding is the royal road to riches. Compounding is the safe road, the sure road, and fortunately, anybody can do it. To compound successfully you need the following: perseverance in order to keep you firmly on the savings path. You need intelligence in order to understand what you are doing and why. And you need a knowledge of the mathematics tables in order to comprehend the amazing rewards that will come to you if you faithfully follow the compounding road. And, of course, you need time, time to allow the power of compounding to work for you. Remember, compounding only works through time.
But there are two catches in the compounding process. The first is obvious -- compounding may involve sacrifice (you can't spend it and still save it). Second, compounding is boring -- b-o-r-i-n-g. Or I should say it's boring until (after seven or eight years) the money starts to pour in. Then, believe me, compounding becomes very interesting. In fact, it becomes downright fascinating!
In order to emphasize the power of compounding, I am including this extraordinary study, courtesy of Market Logic, of Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33306. In this study we assume that investor (B) opens an IRA at age 19. For seven consecutive periods he puts $2,000 in his IRA at an average growth rate of 10% (7% interest plus growth). After seven years this fellow makes NO MORE contributions -- he's finished.
A second investor (A) makes no contributions until age 26 (this is the age when investor B was finished with his contributions). Then A continues faithfully to contribute $2,000 every year until he's 65 (at the same theoretical 10% rate).
Now study the incredible results. B, who made his contributions earlier and who made only seven contributions, ends up with MORE money than A, who made 40 contributions but at a LATER TIME. The difference in the two is that B had seven more early years of compounding than A. Those seven early years were worth more than all of A's 33 additional contributions.
This is a study that I suggest you show to your kids. It's a study I've lived by, and I can tell you, "It works." You can work your compounding with muni-bonds, with a good money market fund, with T-bills or say with five-year T-notes.


Rule 2: DON'T LOSE MONEY: This may sound naive, but believe me it isn't. If you want to be wealthy, you must not lose money, or I should say must not lose BIG money. Absurd rule, silly rule? Maybe, but MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY in disastrous investments, gambling, rotten business deals, greed, poor timing. Yes, after almost five decades of investing and talking to investors, I can tell you that most people definitely DO lose money, lose big time -- in the stock market, in options and futures, in real estate, in bad loans, in mindless gambling, and in their own business.

RULE 3: RICH MAN, POOR MAN: In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN'T NEED THE MARKETS. I can't begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one's mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one's money.
The wealthy investor doesn't need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs. He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money market funds, stocks and real estate. In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to "make money" in the market.
The wealthy investor tends to be an expert on values. When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds. When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks. When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the "give away" table, he buys art or diamonds or gold. In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are.
And if no outstanding values are available, the wealthy investors waits. He can afford to wait. He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly. The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn't mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience).
But what about the little guy? This fellow always feels pressured to "make money." And in return he's always pressuring the market to "do something" for him. But sadly, the market isn't interested. When the little guy isn't buying stocks offering 1% or 2% yields, he's off to Las Vegas or Atlantic City trying to beat the house at roulette. Or he's spending 20 bucks a week on lottery tickets, or he's "investing" in some crackpot scheme that his neighbor told him about (in strictest confidence, of course).
And because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he's a guaranteed loser. The little guy doesn't understand values so he constantly overpays. He doesn't comprehend the power of compounding, and he doesn't understand money. He's never heard the adage, "He who understands interest -- earns it. He who doesn't understand interest -- pays it." The little guy is the typical American, and he's deeply in debt.
The little guy is in hock up to his ears. As a result, he's always sweating -- sweating to make payments on his house, his refrigerator, his car or his lawn mower. He's impatient, and he feels perpetually put upon. He tells himself that he has to make money -- fast. And he dreams of those "big, juicy mega-bucks." In the end, the little guy wastes his money in the market, or he loses his money gambling, or he dribbles it away on senseless schemes. In short, this "money-nerd" spends his life dashing up the financial down-escalator.
But here's the ironic part of it. If, from the beginning, the little guy had adopted a strict policy of never spending more than he made, if he had taken his extra savings and compounded it in intelligent, income-producing securities, then in due time he'd have money coming in daily, weekly, monthly, just like the rich man. The little guy would have become a financial winner, instead of a pathetic loser.

RULE 4: VALUES: The only time the average investor should stray outside the basic compounding system is when a given market offers outstanding value. I judge an investment to be a great value when it offers (a) safety; (b) an attractive return; and (c) a good chance of appreciating in price. At all other times, the compounding route is safer and probably a lot more profitable, at least in the long run.

Sunday, June 10, 2007

憑單(Warrant)

◆何謂憑單?
憑單是一項具槓桿效應的投資工具(leveraged trading instrument),讓投資者能以大幅低于母股價位的小量資金,來達致控制母股的效果。
憑單是有個期限的,若憑單的行使價在期滿前無法超越母股價(即In the Money),該憑單將在期滿時變成廢紙一張。
◆何謂備兌憑單(Structured Warrant,早前也稱 Covered Warrant)?
備兌憑單不同于一般憑單,是由上市公司以外的第三者,如金融機構所發行,與上市公司無關;如土著聯昌-CA(COMMERZ-CA)、馬銀行-CB(MAYBANK-CB)。
目前,本地憑單市場仍以公司憑單居多,例如英沙 -WA(INSAS-WA)、金獅機構-WA(LIONCOR-WA)、媽咪-WA(MAMEE-WA)等。
◆何謂認購憑單(Call Warrant)?
認購憑單是備兌憑單的一種,另一種備兌憑單是認沽憑單(Put Warrant)。不過,目前證券監督委員會還未允許發行認沽憑單;因此文中所說的憑單,泛指認購憑單。
◆什么是H股?
H股指的是香港交易所上市的中國公司
◆何謂造市(market making)?
本地的憑單發行商都是指定造市商(DMM),他們有義務為旗下發行的憑單,提供買賣盤,以提高憑單流通量。
◆投資管道:任何憑單在上市后,都可在股市自由買賣;散戶可通過一般傳統投資管道,如經紀或網上交易戶頭,買賣憑單。
◆行使比率(Exercise Ratio):可轉換成1股母股的憑單數目
◆行使價(Exercise Price):在現貨結算方式(Physical-settled)憑單,行使價指的是憑單持有者可購買母股的價格;既投資者付出行使價,換取現貨(如股票)。
不過,馬股目前的現貨結算憑單並不多,較為人知的有馬種植-CA(MPLANT-CA)。若是現金結算方式(Cash-settled)憑單,行使價指的是持有者在憑單期間或屆滿時,所執行的價位。
馬股市大部分備兌憑單屬于現金結算憑單,當母股和行使價的價位差距(即內在價值)屬正面,憑單持有者不需付出金錢,就可向發行商取得現金,賺取回酬。
◆內在價值(Intrinsic Value):母股價格-憑單行使價
◆到價憑單(At the money):當母股價和行使價一樣
◆價內憑單(In the money):當母股價高過行使價
◆價外憑單(Out of money):當母股價低過行使價

憑單(例子說明)
不同的母股及憑單行使價,將決定憑單持有者的回酬或蒙虧程度,以下為例子及四種可能概況:
母股價格:12.00令吉
行使價:11.50令吉
行使比率:10:1
憑單價:20仙
第一種:價內憑單
若母股在憑單屆滿時的價格為14.50令吉,內在價值為3令吉;除以10:1的行使比率,每股憑單價格在屆滿時應值30仙。
因此,投資者每付出20仙購買1股憑單,料可獲得10仙的差距回酬,相等于50%盈利。
若投資者選擇以12令吉購入100股(1 lot),那他將獲得2.50令吉的每股回酬,相等于20.8%投資成長。
第二種:價外憑單
若母股價在屆滿時,低于11.50令吉的行使價,那此憑單將成一張廢紙,投資者不能取得任何回酬。
如果在期滿前,母股價低于憑單價格,那此項憑單仍具有時間價值。
第三種:到價憑單或損益平衡(Breakeven)
投資者可用憑單價乘以行使比率,再加上行使價,計算出損益平衡價,來確定自己的投資是虧還是賺。
計算方程式:(0.20 x 10) + 11.50 = 13.50令吉
第四種:買賣憑單
憑單是短期投資產品,投資者不一定得持有憑單直至屆滿,可在期間依據判斷買賣憑單,賺取回酬。

























影響憑單6大要素
以下因素揚升時憑單價格注釋
母股價格母股股價上升或下跌,是影響憑單走勢的最重要因素。
無風險利率由于憑單是項有槓桿效應的產品,投資者在某程度上享有股票貸款便利。因此若利率上升,貸款成本便會提高,憑單價理論上也提高。
憑單行使價憑單行使價在發行時已定下不會改變;但公司憑單行使價在某些情況下卻會更改,這包括企業計劃如發紅股、削減股本、發行附加股等。行使價上升將不利認購憑單,因為這意昧投資者必須付出更高投資代價。
股息股息是許多投資者喜愛的項目,但對認購憑單持有者而言,股息是項壞事。派息率越高,憑單價值便越低。馬股上市公司的憑單,一般不會因股息而調整行使價。
母股波幅(Volatility)

股票波幅將影響憑單價值,因為憑單本身是一項選擇權力。若母股波動高,意味憑單價錢到價(At the money)的機率提升。站在發行商立場來看,發行高波動性股票的憑單時,由于到價機率高,導致他們必須提高憑單發行價,來減低風險。
憑單期限

憑單是有期限的投資產品,期限越長,憑單價值便越高。

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Ten Books Every Investor Should Read

Ten Books Every Investor Should Read

When it comes to learning about investment, the internet is one of the fastest, most up-to-date ways to make your way through the jungle of information out there. But if you're looking for a historical perspective on investing or a more detailed analysis of a certain topic, there are several classic books on investing that make for great reading. Here we give you a brief overview of our favorite investing books of all time and set you on the path to investing enlightenment. (To find more recommended books, see Investing Books It Pays To Read.)

"The Intelligent Investor" (1949) by Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham is undisputedly the father of value investing. His ideas about security analysis laid the foundation for a generation of investors, including his most famous student, Warren Buffett. Published in 1949, "The Intelligent Investor" is much more readable than Graham's 1934 work entitled "Security Analysis", which is probably the most quoted, but least read, investing book. "The Intelligent Investor" won't tell you how to pick stocks, but it does teach sound, time-tested principles that every investor can use. Plus, it's worth a read based solely on Warren Buffett's testimonial: "By far the best book on investing ever written."

"Common Stocks And Uncommon Profits" (1958) by Philip Fisher
Another pioneer in the world of financial analysis, Philip Fisher has had a major influence on modern investment theory. The basic idea of analyzing a stock based on growth potential is largely attributed to Fisher. "Common Stocks And Uncommon Profits" teaches investors to analyze the quality of a business and its ability to produce profits. First published in the 1950s, Fisher's lessons are just as applicable half a century later.

"Stocks For The Long Run" (1994) by Jeremy Siegel

A professor at the Wharton School of Business, Jeremy Siegel makes the case for - you guessed it - investing in stocks over the long run. He draws on extensive research over the past two centuries to argue not only that equities surpass all other financial assets when it comes to returns, but also that stock returns are safer and more predictable in the face of the effects of inflation. (To learn more, check out Ten Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor.)

"Learn To Earn" (1995), "One Up On Wall Street" (1989) or "Beating The Street" (1994) by Peter Lynch
Peter Lynch came into prominence in the 1980s as the manager of the spectacularly performing Fidelity Magellan Fund. "Learn To Earn" is aimed at a younger audience and explains many business basics, "One Up On Wall Street" makes the case for the benefits of self-directed investing, and "Beating The Street" focuses on how Peter Lynch went about choosing winning stocks (or how he missed them) while running the famed Magellan Fund. All three of Lynch's books follow his common sense approach, which insists that individual investors, if they take the time to do their homework, can perform just as well or even better than the experts.

"A Random Walk Down Wall Street" (1973) by Burton G. Malkiel
This book popularized the ideas that the stock market is efficient and that its prices follow a random walk. Essentially, this means that you can't beat the market. That's right - according to Malkiel, no amount of research, whether fundamental or technical, will help you in the least. Like any good academic, Malkiel backs up his argument with piles of research and statistics. It would be an understatement to say that these ideas are controversial, and many consider them just short of blasphemy. But whether you agree with Malkiel's ideas or not, it is not a bad idea to take a look at how he arrives at his theories. (For further reading, see What Is Market Efficiency?)

"The Essays Of Warren Buffett: Lessons For Corporate America" (2001) by Warren Buffett and Lawrence Cunningham
Although Buffett seldom comments on his current holdings, he loves to discuss the principles behind his investments. This book is actually a collection of letters that Buffett wrote to shareholders over the past few decades. It's the definitive work summarizing the techniques of the world's greatest investor. Another great Buffett book is "The Warren Buffett Way" by Robert Hagstrom. (For further reading, see Warren Buffett: How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)

"How To Make Money In Stocks" (2003, 3rd ed.) by William J. O'Neil

Bill O'Neil is the founder of Investor's Business Daily, a national business of financial daily newspapers, and the creator of the CANSLIM system. If you are interested in stock picking, this is a great place to start. Many other books are big on generalities with little substance, but "How To Make Money In Stocks" doesn't make the same mistake. Reading this book will provide you with a tangible system that you can implement right away in your research. (For more about CANSLIM, see Trader's Corner: Finding The Magic Mix Of Fundamentals And Technicals.)

"Rich Dad Poor Dad" (1997) by Robert T. Kiyosaki
This book is all about the lessons the rich teach their kids about money, which, according to the author, poor and middle-class parents neglect. Robert Kiyosaki's message is simple, but it holds an important financial lesson that may motivate you to start investing: the poor make money by working for it, while the rich make money by having their assets work for them. We can't think of a better financial book to buy for your kids.

"Common Sense On Mutual Funds" (1999) by John Bogle
John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group, is a driving force behind the case for index funds and against actively-managed mutual funds. In this book, he begins with a primer on investment strategy before blasting the mutual fund industry for the exorbitant fees it charges investors. If you own mutual funds, you should read this book. (To learn more, see The Truth Behind Mutual Fund Returns.)

"Irrational Exuberance" (2000) by Robert J. Shiller
Named after Alan Greenspan's infamous 1996 comment on the absurdity of stock market valuations, Shiller's book, released in Mar 2000, gives a chilling warning of the dotcom bubble's impending burst. The Yale economist dispels the myth that the market is rational and instead explains it in terms of emotion, herd behavior and speculation. In an ironic twist, "Irrational Exuberance" was released almost exactly at the peak of the market. (To learn more on this topic, see Understanding Investor Behavior.)

The more you know, the more you'll be able to incorporate the advice of some of these experts into your own investment strategy. This reading list will get you started, but it is only a fraction of all the great resources available. Do you have a favorite investing book that we've missed? If so, let us know.

For an overview of some of the world's greatest investors, check out The Greatest Investors.

By Investopedia Staff, (Investopedia.com)

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Mutual Funds Get Greedy
by Robert Kiyosaki


I was on a radio program not long ago. My host was a financial planner who was upset about the book Donald Trump and I wrote, "Why We Want You to Be Rich." In the book, Donald and I don't speak highly of mutual funds.

Rather than listening to what I had to say, the interviewer wanted to argue. His position was that Donald and I weren't experts on mutual funds, and had no right to criticize. I agreed that we weren't experts on mutual funds, and reminded the host that Donald I never claimed to be.

An On-Air Dustup

Instead, we were quoting John C. Bogle, a true expert and leader in the mutual fund industry whom I've mentioned before. For those who may not know, John Bogle is the founder of the Vanguard family of funds.

Rather than consider my position -- that Donald and I were not experts, but John Bogle was -- the on-air financial planner defensively said, "John Bogle loves mutual funds."

Again agreeing with him, I replied, "Bogle does love mutual funds. That's why he's upset, because mutual fund investors are being ripped off by mutual fund managers."

Our on-air argument continued for approximately five more minutes. I asked the host if he'd read Bogle's book, "The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism." He admitted that he hadn't, and had no future plans to do so. His position was that I had misinterpreted the book and was taking Bogle's statements out of context.

Bogle on Funds

There's a saying that goes, "Minds are like parachutes. They only work when open." Since the radio-show host's mind was closed, and so was mine, I asked to end the interview early. Rather than continue arguing about a book the listening audience couldn't see and the host didn't plan on reading, I decided to make my case here, with Yahoo! Finance readers.

Essentially, John Bogle's position in "The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism" is that investors -- what he calls the true owners of major corporations and mutual funds -- are being robbed blind by corporation and mutual fund company managers. He refers to it as the shift from owner's capitalism to manager's capitalism.

Most of us have heard about the investors (and true owners) of Enron, WorldCom, and other corporations being fleeced by the likes of Ken Lay, Jeff Skilling, and Bernie Ebbers. Bogle contends that the same type of theft practiced by these men is going on in the mutual fund industry. He doesn't point to just a few bad apples, either -- he fingers the industry as a whole.

To quote Bogle, "Simply put, fund managers have arrogated to themselves an excessive share of the financial markets' returns, and left fund investors with too small a share." Elaborating on that point, Bogle writes, "With today's dividend yields on stocks at about 1.8 percent, a typical equity funds expense ratio consumes fully 80 percent of a fund's income."

As I put it on the air that day, "Eighty percent is a bit greedy."

A Money Vacuum

To illustrate his point, Bogle writes that "while $10,000 invested in the stock market [in 1985] earned a profit of $109,800 [over 20 years], the average mutual fund investor earned a profit of just $29,700. Together, the cost penalty, the timing penalty, and the selection penalty consumed an amazing 73 percent of the profit available simply by buying and holding the stock market itself, leaving the average fund stockholder with a mere 27 percent of the total."

In other words, if investors had invested in the stock market back in 1985, they would have made $109,800 dollars over 20 years. That's including the ups and downs of the market. During the same period, investors who put the same $10,000 in mutual funds made only $29,700.

That's what prompted me to tell the radio interviewer, "That's why mutual funds suck. Not only do they suck 80 percent of the dividends, in come cases they suck another 73 percent of other gains from investors."
I believe my comment was bleeped.

Caveat Emptor

Reading "The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism," you begin to understand Bogle's motivation for writing it. As the radio host accurately told me, "John Bogle loves mutual funds." If that financial planner had read the book, he'd understand that that's precisely why Bogle is so frustrated.

Mutual funds are a beautifully conceived investment vehicle designed to provide long-term wealth for passive investors. Sadly, over the years, fund managers have been both legally and illegally ripping off investors who count on their investments to provide a college education for their kids or retirement security for themselves. It seems that mutual fund managers, like the managers of our major corporations, have sold their souls for fast money, and have left the investors behind.

I agree with Bogle's call for more governance from fund managers. If the rip-off continues, it'll be harder to raise money from investors to fund our entrepreneurs and businesses. Many U.S. investors are already investing overseas rather than at home.

Yet regardless of whether or not our capital market leaders tighten the rules and fund managers regain their capitalistic souls, I remind you of a timeless bit of investing wisdom: "Let the buyer beware." Ultimately, it's your money, so be very careful about what you invest in and who you invest with.

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

投资马来西亚十大首富的挂牌公司

投资赚大钱是可以是一个很复杂的学问,但同时也能是一个是很简单的方法,要看你怎样去选择.......这里要介绍的是, 投资在马来西亚十大最富有的人的挂牌公司.这十大最富有的人是根据FORBES最新的排名, 请参阅 http://top10richmanstock.blogspot.com/道理很简单,他们能成为马来西亚十大首富自然有他们投资的一套, 我们将逐个分析:

1.糖王郭贺年以五十六亿排名第一 你如果过去一年投资在这大马首富的公司,最差的话你可能投资到PPB而获得30%的回酬,最好的话你可能买到PPB OIL 而获得高达155%的回酬,如果你买到HEXAGON也有高大100%的回报,TRANSMILLE和MAYBULK也有30%&40%的回报,整体上郭氏集团的管理层并没有停顿下来,他们仍然不断的为股东创造价值,相信在2007年仍然有所作为,值得我们注意..http://top10richmanstock.blogspot.com

2. Ananda Krishnan 以四十六亿排名第二很可惜,Ananda Krishnan 公司的管理层可能公司太大而无法为股东创造太多的价值,除了Measat,其他的公司都没有杰出的表现,而Measat也是因为之前跌的很多,当成功发射卫星后反弹,基本上,Ananda Krishnan 公司在过去的表现一办....http://top10richmanstock.blogspot.com

3. 郑鸿标以二十一亿排名第三大众银行是众人皆知的保守稳健的公司,每年都为股东创造合理的价值,而伦敦太平洋保险更可以和巴菲特的BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY 媲美,他的投资额只占营业额的4.9%,却为公司的获利的20.8%,也不断的为股东分发高股息,为保守的投资者最佳选择....http://top10richmanstock.blogspot.com

4.李深静以二十亿排名第四另一个管理公司天才李深静在一次为公司创造高价值,IOI成功或得53%的回酬,相信2007年也不例外, 不信的话且拭目以待吧!买一点到老时退休将会是个天文数目,够你养老退休....至于IOI PROPERTY,我们仍对产业股有所保留.....却也能获得18%的回报....http://top10richmanstock.blogspot.com

5. 另一为郭姓富人郭令灿以二十亿排名第五公司的表现参差不齐,HLG CAPITAL获得79%的回酬,刚被大金DAIKIN买去的OYL也获得高回报,其他的公司表现一般....相信得在2007年加倍努力.....http://top10richmanstock.blogspot.com

6. 林悟恫以十五亿排名第六不用我介绍,云顶和名胜世界是家愈户晓,获得新加坡赌场执照更是如虎添翼,不过我本身不喜欢以赌为基础的事业,纯属个人看法,不加评级,但亚太种植为投资者获得更多价值,高大111%的回报,可以留意....http://top10richmanstock.blogspot.com

7.另一个天才杨忠礼以十一亿排名第七 杨忠礼(29%),杨忠礼电力(0%),杨忠礼洋灰(75%)都值得注意,是很值得长期投资的公司...http://top10richmanstock.blogspot.com

8.张晓卿以十一亿排名第八常青集团的公司都有杰出表现,Subur Tiasa的回报达73%,相信刚上市种植股的RUMPUNAN HIJAU值得留意...http://top10richmanstock.blogspot.com

9.Syed Mokhtar AlBukhary 以十亿排名第九马矿业的表现很不错,达百多巴先回酬, IJM也有88.6%的回报, 不过Syed Mokhtar AlBukhary 的公司很多,只能留意大公司,小公司的话请加以忽略,不值得留意....http://top10richmanstock.blogspot.com

10. 林国泰请参考第五的林悟恫......http://top10richmanstock.blogspot.com

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